The impact of tax reform on agribusiness: an analysis of constitutional amendment nº 132/2023, originating from PEC nº 45/2019.

Abstract

The Tax Reform established by Constitutional Amendment No. 132/2023, arising from Proposed Constitutional Amendment No. 45/2019, inaugurates a period of profound transformation in the Brazilian fiscal system, the effects of which will be progressively felt from 2026 onwards. In this context, the particularities of the agricultural production chain — marked by special tax regimes, fiscal incentives, tax cascading in certain transactions, and significant logistical dynamism — raise relevant questions about how the replacement of current taxes by the new Tax on Goods and Services (IBS) and the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) may influence competitiveness, price formation, operational costs, input circulation, and the behavior of economic agents in the sector. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to analyze whether the new tax framework has the potential to significantly reshape the productive structure of agribusiness, as well as to assess the extent to which it may affect the efficiency, legal certainty, and fiscal predictability of rural producers and companies operating within the supply chain. To achieve this understanding, a bibliographic research was developed based on specialized legal scholarship, technical analyses of the Tax Reform, and economic studies examining the role of agribusiness in both the national and international contexts, complemented by a survey of legislative debates and projections released by governmental and sectoral institutions. The findings indicate that the new taxation regime will require a complex adaptation process, given the gradual elimination of benefits historically granted to the sector and the need to reassess production, transportation, and commercialization models. It was further noted that, although the proposed system seeks greater simplicity and neutrality, not all segments of agribusiness will be affected uniformly, making case-by-case analysis essential for measuring the actual economic effects. In this regard, the study concludes that the tax changes, while generating expectations of modernization and fiscal rationalization, do not in themselves constitute a sufficient mechanism to ensure full stability or predictability for agribusiness in the short term, particularly given the diversity of productive chains and the dependence on future regulatory frameworks. Thus, far from representing an absolute or immediate solution, the new fiscal model demands technical, legal, and economic preparedness from sector stakeholders to mitigate risks, identify opportunities, and ensure that Brazilian agribusiness remains competitive on the global stage, preserving its strategic relevance to national development.